New poll shows that Chuck Purgason could potentially win against Carnahan

Posted: May 23, 2010 in 2010 Elections, Missouri United States Senate
Tags: , , , , ,

I was sent a poll today by a Facebook friend. I was amazed at what I found. The data in this poll indicates that not only is state Senator Chuck Purgason the right candidate for Missouri, but could potentially defeat Carnahan in the general election IF he gets more name recognition.

Now I have to admit right off that the results in this poll technically indicate that the current numbers for a hypothetical Carnahan vs. Purgason race show Mr. Purgason losing. But here is the thing, the poll only shows Purgason losing by 4 points, 42%-38%. The undecideds in this specific question are 19%, this is not an accurate number. Now let’s look at the poll a little more in depth to see how I come to the conclusion that Mr. Purgason could win. First off, the party distribution in the poll is very even: Democrats responding were 36%, Republicans were 35%, and Independents/Others were at 29%. Political ideology identification shows 44% of respondents as Conservative, 41% of respondents as moderates, and only 15% of respondents as liberal. This means that 9% of respondents identifying as independents could lean to the Republican candidate in the general.  Rationally, one has to conclude that undecideds are somewhat stratified and that there are going to be conservative minded individuals in that group that would see nothing wrong with voting for Mr. Purgason once they are faced with the monster that is Robin Carnahan. Some of the independents that are sick and tired of business as usual could easily vote for Mr. Purgason.

Polling around the nation has indicated that the Democrats are losing independents and moderates in large numbers. Carnahan is polling at 42% against Blunt and 41% against Purgason. She only polls 1% more if Blunt runs. What’s amazing to me is that there is still 13% of people undecided in the Blunt/Carnahan match-up.

Let’s dig in even further and look a where the poll really gets interesting. First, it’s good to evaluate the unfavorable ratings of Carnahan and Blunt. This doesn’t come as a surprise to me, but Blunt’s unfavorable rating is at 43% and Carnahan’s is at 41%. Carnahan’s favorable is 38% and Blunt’s is only 25%. Think about this for just a second. Roy Blunt is supposed to be the guy that all Republicans are supposed to unite around. He’s supposed to be THE guy to beat Carnahan and only 1 out of 4 respondents view him favorably. And more people view Robin Carnahan favorably!

What else?

57% of voters have an unfavorable rating of Republicans in Congress. That’s 5 more points than those that disapprove of Barack Obama. Just a reminder, but Mr. Blunt is one of those Republicans.

56% of voters have an unfavorable rating of Democrats in Congress. Once again, Chuck Purgason is not a WADC insider that could easily sway voters.

Look I don’t think Congressman Blunt is a bad guy, but he stinks with the filth of WADC. Political donations from bailed out banks and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He voted for No Child Left Behind, but feels that problems should be solved at the local level? He voted for the Bush Bailout (TARP), but believes in small government? He voted for Cash for Clunkers, and believes that government should just get out of the way?

Somebody please tell me what I am missing here? Mr. Blunt said in his speech at Clay County Lincoln Days that he learned at an early age to not put his hand on a hot stove. Mr. Blunt, the stove was hot for sometime, and you kept putting it on the burner. The Federal Government can not and will not solve our problems out here.

I think the results of this new poll are important and something all Republicans should take a look at. Mr. Blunt can be defeated in the primary, and Mr. Purgason CAN defeat Robin Carnahan in the general. It’s really all about name recognition in the end, because Missourians are ready for someone new, someone fresh, and someone who is not a WADC insider who’s hands are stained with the money of lobbyists.

Here is the poll from Public Policy Polling

Here is Senator Purgason’s campaign website, when you decide that Roy Blunt is not for you, come by and make a donation.

  1. Gayla Mitchell says:

    I live in Caulfield, Missouri and have been trying to figure out why the media hasn’t acknowledged Chuck Purgason, I had never met him until he got into State politics and I have come to the conclusion that they are too biased. Maybe they think there isn’t an interesting story, or could it be that he has been too busy working for us the people of Missouri instead of being out promoting himself? Now I know that there are some really smart people in Missouri and I believe more than in most states. I think that we need to find them and ask them for ideas to help get Chuck elected. I am so disappointed in Blunt and Carnahan both. I have seen Chuck in action and have first hand knowledge of how he can help Missouri. The man is smart and has moral standards, something you do not see in a politician now days. Chuck has the ethics and standards to go to Washington and make Missouri PROUD. I do not think that you will see Carnahan or Blunt do this. Chuck will take the lead in Washington and who knows he may be the one to change Congress. Maybe some of the other elected officials might find some of the honesty, character and standards that Chuck has, after all this is the show-me-state, isn’t it?

  2. Fred Berry says:

    I, too, am amazed by how establishment Republicans in Missouri, many of them who claim to be conservative, cling to Roy Blunt. Their loyalty is false. It is false, because Mr Blunt has not been loyal to the principles and causes he claims to represent in their behalf. In a year when the markets crashed, 2008, my wife and I lost $5000 in a preferred stock purchase from Fannie Mae. Mr Blunt, along with Nancy Pelosi accepted $10,000 for their campaign coffers, the most they are allowed to receive in a single year. Adding up all the years Mr Blunt has taken cash from the PAC of Freddie and Fannie, the sum is in excess of $78,000, more than any other senator or congressman, including Nancy Pelosi and Christopher Dodd! Now, it isn’t illegal to take that money, however, what but greed and a shallow pool of personal ethics would allow a Republican to take money knowingly from a corrupt organization, and then vote to bail them out? Further, what but an unprincipled leader in his position as Republican House Minority Whip, would twist the arms of 26 more “loyal” Republicans to vote with him in a false, and fruitless cause, TARP, that would bail out corrupt and financially loose banking institutions? As for beating Robin Carnahan, Blunt wants Missouri Republicans to believe that only he has the wherewithal to do the job. Wrong! Robin Carnahan is on the wrong side of all the issues. I believe that any person of sound integrity, honor, courage, and competence like Chuck Purgason could beat her, as could a mina bird with the same credentials. Don’t for a minute think that Roy Blunt isn’t looking over his shoulder. I have seen it at the gun shows, and local Missouri Republican meetings when Chuck’s background and conservative voting record are pointed out. People just beam with pride and become passionate in support of his campaign. Passion, integrity, true loyalty, competence, and a solid conservative voting record are qualities that all the corrupt campaign funds in the world can’t buy and is why Chuck will win. Tell all your friends about Chuck and ask them to tell their friends. www. Do that and neither Roy nor Robin can win.

    (As for our $5000, well, we’re not getting a bail out, nor should we. We’ll take our lumps and move on, as should we all.)

  3. Jack C. says:

    Its a no-brainer folks! Blunt is a politician, pergason is a Statesman!! Nough said!

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