New poll showing a Carnahan-Purgason Match-up

Posted: July 31, 2010 in 2010 Elections, Missouri United States Senate
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Interesting poll showing Purgason could potentially beat Carnahan in the general. I suspect it’s possible, but not by this much. I don’t think the party distribution is accurate for Missouri in this poll. I can’t find any good party affiliation estimates for Missouri and I’m tired of looking. Gallup has something updated in February but I don’t think it’s representative of really what Missouri is, I am not a fan of Gallup data either. Ethnicity is spot on per Census 08 estimates. Females are over sampled by 4 points, which surprises me that it shows such a lead for Purgason. Traditionally women vote Democrat more often, but I think that dynamic in politics is changing, much more strong women faces in the Republican party these days. The 65+ group is over sampled by a factor of 2-1, 65+ group in Missouri is only about 14%. That is statistically significant, but it doesn’t seem to skew the data too much because in the crosstabs it is about 50/50 Purgason/Carnahan. Bottom line, I think the party ID hurts the poll, but in this climate I think that anyone that identifies with Obama statewide is going to lose in November. Missouri significantly dislikes Obama.

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